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MLB Best Bets and Picks for Friday, May 12

The Marlins are calling up top pitching prospect Eury Perez and in honor of the move, we are going to bet on Perez in a handful of markets, plus there’s some great trends to take advantage of when placing MLB bets in the Rangers and Athletics matchup.

Eury Perez’s MLB Debut Best Bet 

The Bet: Over 4.5 K (-130)

We are going to back the 20-year-old phenom to exceed his player prop in his major league debut. Not only has his swing and miss rate in the minors been the same as Jacob DeGrom’s (21%), the Reds have the fourth-highest K rate in the league at 24.6%. Perez has been striking batters out at a rate of more than 12 per nine in minors, and his WHIP is a mere 0.81. He should have enough control and command to stay in the game long enough to exceed his strikeout prop of 4.5.

Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP

Rangers vs. Athletics Best Bets: Friday May 12

The Bet: Rangers -1.5 (-110), Over 9 (+100)

When the top-scoring team in baseball faces the team with the league’s worst record, it’s a good time to take advantage.

We cashed two of our three best on the Rangers/A’s yesterday (we missed on the over), and there’s no reason not to target the matchup again today.

Friday’s starter for the Rangers is Martin Perez. The lefty pitcher struggled vs. the Angels last time out allowing seven earned runs, but on the season his ERA still sits at only 3.86. Perez’s xERA is 4.86, but it’s unlikely the A’s will be the team that further exposes him. But Oakland will at least add a couple runs to tonight’s game total.

Ken Waldichuk gets the start for Oakland. The lefty has an ERA of 7.54 this season with an xERA of 5.84. The Rangers, who have the fifth-best OPS vs. lefties this year (.800) and are scoring a league-leading 6.24 runs per game, should be able to get to him.

Now, let’s review the state of the bullpens. Texas’s bullpen is middle of the pack, but the A’s bullpen remains the worst in the league with an ERA of 6.79. That bullpen is likely what has caused A’s games to go over 64.9% of the time this season (24-13-2). That’s the second-highest rate in the league.

For their part, the Rangers’ offense has also contributed to an over more often than not. Rangers’ games have gone over 60% of the time (21-14-2), and that’s the fourth-highest rate in the league. Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games and in its last seven games on the road.

Texas has covered the run line a league-leading 62.2% of the time this year (23-14-0), while the A’s have the third-lowest rate at 38.5% (13-23-0).

The total has gone over in five of Oakland’s last seven games when playing at home against Texas.

You guessed it- we are taking the Rangers -1.5 and we are going to take over which is offering plus money today.

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